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FOCUS: IMPERIUM
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Obama's surprise visit to Iran ...
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By
Marwan Bishara, Al Jazeera's Senior Political Analyst
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Will or should Obama drop by Tehran?
Do you think I'm stupid? You actually think that during a carefully planned 'high-stakes trip' Obama would risk it all to score a point - one that McCain, Bush and their bulldogs would most probably rip apart! You must think he's stupid!
God forbid. A guy who, against all odds, made it to the top is anything but. Obama is a politically savvy and shrewd operator.
So, why risk it? And with Ayatollahs no less!
Look, Washington already understands that it must deal with Tehran to ameliorate its military standing in Iraq and Afghanistan. The Bush administration is already engaged in dialogue with the Iranian government and might even open an interest section in Tehran.
Yeah, but Condoleezza Rice has already revealed that the Iranians are not being cooperative and that the meeting in Geneva was, in effect, a waste of time. In fact, more sanctions will probably be forthcoming.
Well, that doesn't contradict Obama's position. He has already made the point about the need for "aggressive" diplomacy with Tehran and by aggressive he didn't mean babysitting the Ayatollahs. So why not start now? He could certainly close the foreign policy gap with McCain and even pocket the presidency if the Iranians are cooperative.
Wrong again. Whatever Ahmadinejad does it will hurt Obama. If he embraces him, the Democratic candidate is history - he might as well not go back. And if he snubs him, then Obama will end up looking like a fool.
You're missing the point. More Iranians, something like 57 per cent, favour talks with the US in general, and 69 per cent favour talks with the US over security in Iraq, while 71 per cent favour tourism between the two countries, according to a recent poll by worldpublicopinion.org.
So what! Obama is running for the presidency of the US not Iran.
I was hoping you would say that. Listen carefully - in the US, four out of five Americans or 79 per cent support direct talks between the two governments. That is more than enough to win support for Obama's daring visit.
Maybe, but as you clearly stated, between the "two governments" and as far as I am aware, Obama is not in the government yet, even if he tries to sound like he is.
True, but if the Iranians promise Obama they will freeze their nuclear programme or engage the US in a sincere diplomatic process that includes more helpful roles in Iraq and Afghanistan, the senator and his entourage would have made their point to the American voters.
Dream on! Besides, this guy already has a huge lead over his frail Republican opponent. He doesn't need a political stunt to win. If anything, foreign policy theatrics could only hurt him.
Oh, what a short memory you have. Wake up and smell the coffee. So many democrats had one and two digit leads over their Republican rivals in the past, and they all ended up losing on election day. The lead Obama has must be used as a safety margin that allows him to take calculated risks.
I disagree. Obama proved to be a marathon runner not a sprinter. That's how he beat Hillary Clinton. He won't attempt a knockout, but rather beat McCain on points.
But at the end of the day, the presidency is going to be decided in the greater Middle East region. And Tehran is pivotal in either stabilising the security situation or inflaming it in the months to come.
That's all the more reason why Obama should keep away, let matters take their course and leave the Bush-McCain camp to take responsibility.
And that's anything but strategic. Obama must be proactive as Nixon was when he visited China in 1972. Not to suggest that he repeats the Reagan campaign's manoeuvre when its officials, according to press reports, reached an implicit understanding with the Ayatollahs not to release the hostages at the Iranian embassy in Tehran until after the 1980 elections to ensure Carter's failure.
I am going to pass over the last example since it's not relevant here, unless you are suggesting that Obama or his associates conduct secret, and probably illegal, meetings with the Iranians over their policy in the next four months! As for Nixon's visit, let me remind you that he was the president and China during the Cold War is not Iran of today.
Maybe not, but China was merely instrumental in containing the Soviet strategic challenge. As for Iran, it is the most important strategic challenge facing the US, thanks to the Bush administration's adventures in Iraq and its failures in Afghanistan.
Regardless. The Bush administration will consider any such trip to be interference in this crucial phase of official US policy or even to be compromising US national security by appeasing the Iranians during war time. Obama claims to be traveling to the region to listen. Well, we know what Tehran has to say.
No we don't. That's the whole point. I don't think Washington has cared to listen for some three decades now. Perhaps it's time someone does ...
Hardly the point ...
At least if he goes, there will be less chance of the Bush-McCain camp launching a pre-emptive strike leading perhaps to another war and putting Obama's entire campaign in jeopardy.
If they do, we will all be in jeapordy.
To be continued ...
The views expressed by the author are not necessarily those of Al Jazeera
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Feedback |
Number of comments : 19 |
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Iran
Iran |
23/07/2008 |
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Obamas Surprise visit |
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Sir'
You seem to miss the point, as does Condi (deliberate or otherwise). And that is that, why would Iran have any preference for Obama. You assume that if Obama decides to go to Tehran, Ahmadinejad would crown him. Ahmd talks of Iran's right, not preference for one or the other american party. So does think Condi, she asks for an end to Iran's enrichment as if all along Iran had been longing for a meeting with her representative to bend over for Bush. She wants a quick resolution/job. |
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T.Foster
Great Britain (UK) |
23/07/2008 |
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Bisharas article |
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It is certianly true that a majority of the Iranians favour discussions with the USA just as in GB and the USA a majority favour an end to the illegal and merciless war on Iraq.Who listines to the majority?
With AIPAC and its associates pulling the strings in the USA,Obama,who knows the score,will continue to dance to their choreography.Make no mistake about it.
Brown,Obama-the names are interchangeable-all kneel down before the great god,Israel.The rest is merely smoke and mirrors. |
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Marc Myrsell
United States |
23/07/2008 |
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Obamas suprise visit to Iran ... |
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Ahmadinejad may appear to not have a preference of one US presidential canidate over another. However, it's important to remember Reagan's October Surprise negotiations with Iran, prior to the election that aided in Carter's defeat and Reagan's success. |
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Dean
United States |
24/07/2008 |
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Obamas position |
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There is a mistaken statement I would like to correct. Obama does not have a significant lead over Mc Cain. He is in knife fight in a phone booth with Mc Cain. Probably 1% of the general voter turnout will determine the winner of the election. The tailwind provided by Malaki's comments about timing a US pullout of troops should suffice for the moment. Both to give Malaki ammunition against Bush, and help Obama. Small deliberate steps please. |
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George Nyb
Afghanistan |
24/07/2008 |
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Obama in Iran |
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A surprise visit to Iran by Obama, will get my vote. I like a man that keeps his word and is nor all talk and no actions. I am tired of empty promises. Moreover a politician's job is to deal us out of trouble not tha other way around. |
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Omar Saleh
Yemen |
24/07/2008 |
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YES for a Direct Talk with Iran |
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A direct talk with Iran will clear all the problems. I wish that Obama will take the same negative path of Bush. Bush is known for cry fool. Why not to a direct talk with Hamas and Hezbollah. No one has the right to condemn or impose his ideas on others. Bush sees that he is absolutely right and Iran also sees that she is absolutely right and that on one on this earth can deprive her of her right to have nuclear technology. Why Bush administration is having a double stand between Iran and Korea! |
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Tammy
United States |
25/07/2008 |
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Obamas Visit to Iran |
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Obama should visit with Iran. Just because the U.S. has classified him as a terrorists he is still the head of a country. |
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Dr LT
Australia |
25/07/2008 |
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Obamas visit to Iram |
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Quite an interesting article. I agree with Marwan.
The bottom line is would Obama follow the line of the lobby groups or true aspirations of the people be it American publics or Iranian masses. All the changes he is talking about will be in vein if he follow the US lobbies in shaping his foreign policies. He has already proven that he would follow Israeli lobby when he spoke to AIPAC. Lets hope he will get his senses back after he is elected the president of USA as he knows what is right! |
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Brandon
United States |
01/08/2008 |
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none |
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I feel that with Obama visiting Iran would be a detriment to the integrity of the United States. What with the hostility shown by Iran, this would no doubt give Mahmoud njad the feeling of power over the United States. I feel that diplomatic measures should be taken to either dismantle the Iranian regime or take the country by force. This would no doubt communicate the message to the Middle East that we are not to be taken lightly. |
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Pam
New Zealand (Aotearoa) |
02/08/2008 |
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Obama |
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Of course he will go to Iran. He is a negotiator, he has a mind of his own, he is not intimidated by the lies of the Bush Administration. He will get along with Ahmadinejad just fine, as they both believe in dialog. |
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alan Sabrosky, Ph.D
United States |
23/07/2008 |
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Marwan Bishara on Obama & Iran |
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M. Bishara makes excellent points, but he neglects to mention that Israel and its US lobbies (through money & media) have an absolute lock on this, and all other Middle East, issues. That is why Obama and all other presidential contenders make pilgrimages to Jerusalem, to pledge their fealty to the State of Israel. Anything Obama did with Iran along M. Bishara's suggestions would be a political kiss of death for him AIPAC & company would go all out to ruin him, and they would succeed. |
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chris mahaffy, Ph.D
United States |
23/07/2008 |
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Obama/Iran |
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It NEVER hurts to talk to someone, or some country, to see if there are agreements that might be reached.
Of course Obama should go to Iran,
and every other country in the region. Anyone would think Israel was special
oh, sorry I forgot, Israel IS special
(God/Allah knows why) |
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Richard Bennett
Canada |
23/07/2008 |
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Obama in Iran |
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Why should Iran trust Obama or any other American politician. Let's look at a bit of history. During the reign of the Shah the U.S. supported him becasuse of his oil and strategic location. The Shah instilled a brutal regime. After the Shah went Mr. Rumsfeld et al jumped into bed with "chemical weapons" Saddam during the Iran/Iraq war. Iran is now evil in Bush's eye, although he has overrun Iran's neighbour Iraq. Trust?? give me a break!@!!! |
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woof
United States |
24/07/2008 |
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Obama And Iran |
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It is already decided by the masters who is going to be the president of USA. And attack will be in order as soon as the last Iranian Jew gets out of Iran. |
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Pablo
United States |
24/07/2008 |
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Osama Obama |
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Many of the voters that are extolling the virtues of this guy and applauding his 'let's talk to Iran' stance are too young to remember several things Jimmy Carter, the Arab oil embargo, inflation run amok in the 1970's, and the Iranian revolution that resulted in our embassy being overrun by islamic mobs and holding our people hostage for 444 days. His weakness would repeat all mistakes. |
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muhammad bello
Nigeria |
24/07/2008 |
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obamas suprise visit to Iran |
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Thats exactly the point Obama has been preaching, the change we can believe in, how do you resolve issues you are hardly willing to resolve, why the hatred, the world needs a healer. |
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J. Prophet
United States |
25/07/2008 |
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Need Diplomacy |
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Maybe Obama can acheive with diplomacy what others couldn't with threats: Dialogue. Iran (Ahmadinejad) doesn't particularly like being threatened and bullied any more than Canadians or Americans. No, Iran should not be seeking nuclear capabilities but G.W. has ruined any chance of anyone in his administration being able to meet in a dignified, civil manner on the issue by being an isolationist, wanna be cowboy. |
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Me
United States |
25/07/2008 |
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Obamas surprise visit to Iran... |
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I hope Obama does visit Iran. It's about time someone in this country (USA) has some real negotiations instead of just pointing the finger at everyone else and then going off to war with them. Real talks are the only way to really create change and better relations between sides. Hopefully, this is a pointer to a positive change in our government...if Obama becomes president that is! |
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RAFFEY
United States |
27/07/2008 |
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Obamas surprise visit to iran |
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It is inevitable that under a differant presidency U.S. will meet with iran conserning the future of both countries,it is only in their best interest and for the sake of peace which we all welcome.(in time) |
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