UPDATED ON:
Saturday, May 23, 2009
16:58 Mecca time, 13:58 GMT
 
FOCUS: GLOBAL RECESSION
A financial house of cards

Cheap consumer goods and credit created a 'debt house of cards' [GALLO/GETTY]

As Americans come to realise the full scope of the now global economic crisis, the instability it causes is being seen as a bigger security threat than terrorism.

Every sector of the US economy has been negatively impacted and layoffs are being announced almost daily.

The roots of this crisis can be traced back to the economic policies of the 1980s.

For a generation the growth of the US economy has been disproportionately driven by the availability of cheap consumer goods and investment credit.

This system, which peaked with the rise of the securitisation of highly risky sub-prime mortgages in the last few years, enabled an investment system to emerge in which the debt to equity ratio was an outstanding, and totally unsustainable, 100 to one.

Special report
As Nouriel Roubini, a New York University economist who was among the first to predict the collapse we are now experiencing, explains it, the largely unregulated debt system created a "credit chain".

This debt-to-equity ratio was so unstable that even a one per cent fall in the price of the final investment at the end of the chain "wipes out the initial capital and creates a chain of margin calls that unravel this debt house of cards".

The world economy similarly depended on a growth formula based on a debt-equity ratio of five to one.

This means that in order for countries to maintain real GDP growth of two to three per cent, available credit would have to expand by 10 to 15 per cent.

Social roots

This massively unbalanced mechanism was not only rooted in the financial sector but the manufacturing and service industries as well.

Richard Wolff, a University of Massachusetts economist, says the crisis "grows out of the relation of wages to profits across the economy. It has profound social roots in America's households and families and political roots in government policies".

Since the 1820s, the US economy has experienced steady gains in productivity.

This led not only to steadily increasing profits for corporations but also to rising working class wages and, with it, consumption levels.

As wages and consumption rose, the "Protestant ethic" that had helped to generate capitalism's unprecedented economic power was discarded in favour of an ethic of commodity consumption.

People's identities were now increasingly defined by what they consumed rather than their religious beliefs or social actions.

The size of one's home, car and flat-screen TV, or the price of one's clothes, mobile phones and holidays became of paramount importance.

This economic ideology - based on the possibility, and desirability, of limitless growth - created an ethos of rampant materialism and individualism.

'Borrowing binge'

The economic dynamics that supported this ideology changed radically in the 1970s when neo-liberal globalisation introduced structural changes to existing financial systems.

Rapid development in computer, communications and transportation technologies fuelled an economic productivity which led to unprecedented growth in corporate profits.

Meanwhile, this process weakened the ability of workers to maintain wage growth at a rate comparable to productivity and profits.

In fact, around 1970 real wages for most non-management workers stopped increasing, and have stayed flat, and even declined, since then.

Wolff explains that rather than fight against the erosion of their incomes, working and middle class Americans began to work even longer hours, and then take on second and even third jobs, in order to continue to consume apace with the upper classes.

In comparison, less consumption-obsessed workers in Western Europe now work 20 per cent less than they did in the 1970s.

By the 2000s this strategy no longer generated enough extra income to sustain the levels of consumption Americans - and the rest of the world - were being told should define their identities and sense of self, and even communal, worth.

So Americans went on what Wolff rightly calls the "greatest binge of borrowing in the history of any working class in any country at any time".

It is not insignificant that the day after the September 11 attacks, George Bush, the then US president, advised Americans to "go shopping".

'Walmartisation'

In the early 1900s, Henry Ford, the founder of the Ford Motor Company, realised that the best way for his company to make steady profits was to pay his employees enough so that they could afford to buy his cars.

Low wages and increased consumerism led to a reliance on credit [GALLO/GETTY]
Today, what I term the "Walmartisation" of the US and global economies has produced a situation where Wal-mart, a giant retail store chain, pays its workers so little that they can only afford to shop at its, and other similar, stores.

Essentially, corporate America realised that it could keep wages flat, even as productivity rose and lend workers the money - at highly profitable interest rates - to continue consuming beyond their means or needs.

To sustain such a scheme, credit would have to remain cheap and plentiful.

The scheme would also necessitate a rise in equity, at least on paper, against which Americans could continue borrowing - whether for conspicuous consumption or, increasingly, for necessities such as health care and college tuition.

That is where the rise in house prices and the "bubble" it created became so important to the continued sustainability of the system.

The online journal Dollars & Sense succinctly described the early 2000s as "distinguished by massive investments in dud or plainly unproductive assets".

Once these investments could no longer grow, at least on paper, or produce even the minimal returns needed to sustain the system, economic collapse became inevitable.

Way of life

Of course, the same decade has also been marked by the global "war on terror", which has carried a price tag approaching the US annual GDP.

The militarisation of the US and larger global economies (and as important, cultures), and the largely unchecked damage done to the environment at the very moment when drastic action was needed to stem global warming, manifested themselves during the last eight years.

Both have helped to create the current global economic and employment crisis.

So far, the Obama administration has sought to inject enough money into the US economy to ease up the restrictions on credit and stimulate the economy through tax breaks and infrastructure programmes.

What few Americans, politicians and ordinary citizens alike, have thought to consider is whether the financial system that the new administration is trying to rescue - essentially, the "American way of Life" - should even be saved.

After all, a long-term drop in global consumption is one of the few conceivable ways to stop the slide toward the tipping point of global warming and environmental degradation, not to mention the increasingly violent resource wars and global poverty, that are the inevitable outcome of a world economic system premised on limitless growth and consumption.

Obama's biggest challenge, then, will be to figure out how to create millions of jobs while steering the US economy away from the economically and environmentally unsustainable model of growth that helped generate the present crisis.

To do this will require more than spending hundreds of billions of dollars on rebuilding crumbling infrastructure and encouraging "green" technologies.

It will require designing an architecture for a 21st century economy that much more equitably distributes limited resources among an expanding population than has the debt/consumption system that is now collapsing globally.

It is hard to imagine how such a system could be devised, and put in place with public approval in time to stop the projected loss of tens of millions of jobs globally that now seems the likely, if not inevitable, outcome of the current recession. 

Mark LeVine is a professor of Middle East history at the University of California, Irvine, and is the author of Heavy Metal Islam: Rock, Resistance, and the Struggle for the Soul of Islam and the soon to be published An Impossible Peace: Israel/Palestine since 1989.

The views expressed by the author are not necessarily those of Al Jazeera.


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 Source: Al Jazeera
Feedback Number of comments : 46
 
Mostafa A.
Belgium
22/02/2009
Flow of capital to the US
Hi, I would like to add that the rest of the world has helped largely in maintaining this system of debt. Indeed, the USA has a large deficit on its current account, meaning that capital flows into the USA from investors abroad. This flow of capital has helped to provide the credit to fuel more consumption. It is surprising to note that developing (BRIC) countries invest more in the US than at home. Not to mention the arab world who send their petrol income to the US to feed consumption.

Christopher Rushlau
United States
22/02/2009
I cant get beyond the first sentence.
"Being seen" by whom? The Voice Of Authority has eyes, too? I doubt it. The US has always lived this way. But this war on terror, unlike Vietnam or Reaganism, got out of control and we forgot to keep an eye on the account books. Nothing special.

Knute Rife
United States
22/02/2009
Too True
First, predictably, went the loss of the gravitas that made it all possible. Then came the inevitable loss of the peculiar advantages the US enjoyed as a result of WWII. Then came the desperate clinging to the lifestyle produced by those advantages, even though it was no longer possible. Then came governments determined to maintain power and corporations determined to inflate profits by enabling that clinging. And finally cam collapse.

Victor
United States
22/02/2009
Greed
There is only one reason for this golbal economic crisis. It's GREED. Pervasive greed from top to bottom created this situation. We are guilty of disregarding the advice of our elders and the past history of the last depression. We are guilty of excesses that made the US, the country with the largest obese people. We are guilty of false pride that our government and financial system is infallible and we rule the world. We are guilty of this global problem and led the world into this abyss.

Peter
United States
22/02/2009
Mark Levine on House of Cards
Isn't anyone going to stand up and say that this guy's full of it? No question, the U.S. and the world took a big hit. Mark LeVine is taking this as an opportunity to attack everything he doesn't like about the American economic system, with no substantiation. Let's all quit complaining and get to work. Done properly, this recession is a chance to redirect freed-up labor to work on infrastructure, energy, etc. By the way Professor Levine, I love your articles on Israel and the Palestinians.

Nancy
United States
22/02/2009
A Financial House of Cards
I'm retiring early to separate from a job with a corporation that is, starting in '09, requires it's reps to sell "X" amount of financial products per month - in this market! The stress to accomplish the "goals" the corporation sets for each rep is taking a huge toll on the rep's health & families. The reps are trapped due to lack of employment opportunities. We are rats on a treadmill and the speed dial is being turned up. Published your article far & wide it is crucial that all read it.

Bruce Sims
United States
22/02/2009
A Financial house of cards
"What few Americans, politicians and ordinary citizens alike, have thought to consider is whether the financial system that the new administration is trying to rescue - essentially, the "American way of Life" - should even be saved." EXACTLY and why I don't support what the U.S. government is currently doing. When -and if- bankers/banking ever gets back to being that which they used to do -instead of being vehicles for speculative 'investment'- recovery might occur

Bill
Belgium
23/02/2009
A financial house of cards
Very interesting article, one of the better ones I've read sofar. Bill

Dyke Davis
Afghanistan
23/02/2009
A financial house of cards
Mr. Mark LeVine: Your article was a vindication of what I have been saying for years concerning the "War On Terror" and the American idea of materialism versus the impact on our global enviroment and social structures. What was frightening to me was the hidden-in-plan-sight reason we went into Iraq while faking an Afganistan invasion to root out Al Quaeda training camps and fighters. Thanks for the great article and keep speaking truth to power maybe someone of real importance will hear!

Balther Jensen
Canada
23/02/2009
The Economy
We need to follow Muhammad (pbuh) advice, and declare war, on all who want ' interest' for lending money out to their fellow people.

Peter
Germany
23/02/2009
A financial house of cards By Mark LeVine
Excellent to the point article. In particular, the statement: "What few... have thought to consider is whether the financial system ...should even be saved" I regard as the core argument. This thought that needs to be developed with great vigour as all evidence suggests that capitalism, as we know it, and the political systems that have become corrupted by it, not only have outlived their use - but now also constitute the greatest threat to the sustainability of societies on this planet.

Calum Coburn
Australia
23/02/2009
Terrorism?
Hope that Mark Levine is talking about the CIA terrorism on the American people and the MI5's terrorism on the British people what he writes: "a bigger security threat than terrorism". The bogey terrorist man never existed, and so can't be defeated, and makes for a perfect George Orwellian '1984' enemy to struggle against perpetually. As for the cause the burst - the privately owned Federal Reserve caused this bust, same way they caused the boom. It's not the first, but may be their last

Randy Brown
United States
24/02/2009
A Financial House of Cards
So...productivity increased beyond the ability of consumers to consume the ever increasing quantity of goods. Wow! The clever solution way back when was to gradually convince Americans to adopt the use of credit in order to increase their capacity to consume. Suddenly the producing class has a disproportionate share of the wealth - more than they can ever spend or invest wisely. So they fuel bubbles and/or hoard a lot of it. I wonder if we should focus on a more equitable distribution?

Big Oil
Canada
24/02/2009
Destabalized, there will be a variety of revolution and vacuums
The sovereign powers of the world have become quite professional at manipulating their populations. The threat of a grass-roots uprising in one of the developed countries is small, even autonomous pockets there would be hesitant at toppling the power structure. The problem that the empire faces is on it's perifery and the not-fully-integrated developing power houses. For common folk, they will mobalize as there sovereign masters coerce them to. There is cataclysm, but not for a bit yet...

vincent
United States
24/02/2009
While the intricacies of the article may be flawed, the basic picture is correct. American consumerism destroys the economy, environment, keeps millions poor and starving in developing nations, and brings devastating war with incredible civilian casualties. And lets not let everyone else off the hook for following so earnestly.

Marty
United States
24/02/2009
iffy
I think what I don't like about this article is it tries to link two distinct issues (credit card debt vs housing bubble) that don't have a lot in common. It also has some false assumptions (People work 2 jobs to live, not buy nice things). I also don't agree with the cause of all this as I think the housing bubble was the primary catalyst (which had many helpers). The general theme is right, Americans need to learn to live within their means and need to get their own house in order.

Tim
Canada
24/02/2009
Total agreement
I have been using the same metaphor of a house of cards in my conversations with others as we have discussed what is happening in the world. This is a very good article as it analyzes the current situation from various angles: economic, cultural, spiritual, environmental, social. I agree with the author that this "crisis" gives, especially the western societies, an opportunity to re-make themselves and focus more on keeping things simple instead of consumation and accumulation.

Paul
Thailand
24/02/2009
Good article
Good article. Well written. In answer to your question how is this affecting you? Here are some ways to look at it: 1. So far I have seen none of the recession. The rice fields here are still producing the same amount of rice. The fruit trees are still bearing fruit. In fact the health of the USA economy seems to have no real effect on the productivity of Earth - except that perhaps with less economic growth, she may be able to recover some of her fertility. We can only hope.

David
New Zealand (Aotearoa)
24/02/2009
I agree with Randy
US Multinational buys cheapest labour (in China), sells product to biggest market- US consumers with easy credit, makes big profit, crowds out smaller US family firms, pushes down US workers wages. Same happens in every other country. Top Managers, large shareholders get a greater percentage of the total wealth. Daddy buys daughter $200,000 car for her 16th birthday. See France 1789, China 1949, Prussian Junkers, Austro-Hungarian Empire for end result.

Don DeBar
United States
24/02/2009
Mark LeVine piece
Excellent and clear layout of the history of recent events which bring us to our present condition.

Mark
Afghanistan
24/02/2009
House of Cards
When I recently learned about how "proudly" Port authorities in L.A.said the ship containers "no longer return empty"to China...they now ship trash back to China for recycling, I knew things were very bad for USA. Obama to me represents an 11th hour attempt at "Perestroika" for a deathly ill empire. Another example of the 1917 "Provisional" Russian Govt. Too little,too late. Mark

Ire Verent
United States
24/02/2009
not convincing, no credentials
If I had to study the Middle East all day I would get depressed as well. But this gloom and doom speculation extrapolates from zero to infinity with nothing but wishful thinking. Money is like manure, it needs to be spread around to make things grow not horded as Levine proposes. Most of what is happening now is because of greed in the housing market and the use of a legal pyramid scheme called sub prime mortgages to milk the average person of there retirement money.

Ire Verent
United States
24/02/2009
B movie story line
Evil corporations turning Americans into materialistic zombies. Sounds like a trite B movie sub title. American purchases spread wealth around the world including millions of manufacturing jobs for subsistence farmers in China. Risky investment in science, medicine and technology have revolutionized health care and increased life span dramatically. A free market economy is not always smooth sailing. It has its ups and downs but in a storm you trim the sails you don't scuttle the ship.

Tom
New Zealand (Aotearoa)
25/02/2009
An apple by any other name is still an apple
When the apple rots from the inside, there is little way of knowing it until you take a bite. Today, the USA is a barrel of apples, some good, some bad, but there’s no one willing to risk a bite.

Big Oil
Canada
25/02/2009
Enslaved!
Yes, this end was noticed by many socio-political and economic intellectuals long before. Mentioned by Jeremy Rifkin, and George Soros years before, to mention just a couple of names. This statement is true...Ordinary peoples means of maintenance and production was highjacked by lazy finance capitalists to enrich it's themselves over a generation. This was not wealth production, It was a form of slavery imposed upon their subjects and of people around the world. Common folk will pay the price.

Nitin Mittal
India
25/02/2009
A financial house of cards
Its been a VERY VERY long time since I last read a honest article that mentions the state of affairs in its true spirit. Need more information of this type to inform people around the world on whats happening and how their actions are shaping the world.

JIm
Thailand
25/02/2009
House of cards
Dissolve the monetary system. Introduce a resource based system.

Birdman of Arusha
Tanzania
22/02/2009
Financial House of Cards
Absolutely excellent - you leave the others lying - qv BBC inept and limited attempts at analysis'. Please keep on writing.

Bob
Afghanistan
22/02/2009
Financial house of cards
I fully agree with M. Levine's analysis. Human nature being what it is, the social and religious constraints were not enough to counteract the frenzy of consumerism. With the depression we are entering, there will be some readjustment but the human desire for always more will eventually return wether in western countries or elsewhere.There is no redemption for the human race.Only goverment controls can try to keep a semblance of social order which is unlikely with democracy.

Mark McClure
United States
22/02/2009
"House of Cards" by Mark Levine
If you want to publish an article about the economy, get an economist not a history professor. He misanalyzes the financial crisis, then he lapses into radical socialist rant. This article has a kernal of truth but a whole lot of nonsense.

DessertFirstNews
Malaysia
23/02/2009
A financial house of cards!
One of the best comprehensive assessments of our present problems I have read. Congratulations.

Michael
United States
23/02/2009
Leaves out the propaganda aspect
Why were Americans becoming more individualistic, closed off, atomized, and materialistic? Because corporations realized that in order to keep the country safe from the "crisis of democracy" namely letting the public have any say in government affairs, they needed to have a huge propaganda system to keep them seperated and to make it so they only care about their cars. And that's what the public relations industry is for, same goes for the entertainment industry and sports as well.

Mark LeVine
United States
23/02/2009
data/evidence re my argument in this article
Thanks for the comments thus far. For those who are looking for evidence for my argument, I provide a detailed analysis of the political economy of the 'walmartization' of the US and global systems in my book "Why They Don't Hate Us: Lifting the Veil on the Axis of Evil," particularly chapters 3-5 and 9 with detailed tables and charts. the book was the first book length analysis of the impact of globalization in the Middle East and North Africa and how it is linked to American consumer culture.

Antoine OhIcidhe
Australia
24/02/2009
A financial house of cards
I read the other day, that what we are now witnessing in the financial crises is the end of "Anglo Capitalism". Since 1066, the Anglo Imperialists have spread darkness to all corners of the planet. Civilisations were conquered and the free nations of the earth have suffered under the darkness. Bravo Comrade President Obama. Thank you for being so bold as to begin the task of restructuring the way we live. All 6.2 billion of us could live middle class if greed can finally be conquered. Yes we can

horace
Afghanistan
24/02/2009
The economy
When Obama said rotten things about the rich and how they would be forced to share with the lazy poor. The rich took their money and left the building. When Biden said the middle class needed to step up to the plate...the middle class left with their most recent paycheck as they go payday to payday. As long as Obama continues to pretend he is qualified to be our leader the economy will continue to drop till we are represented truthfully.

Ann
Italy
24/02/2009
We're looking at results no different than those of warfare. Look at Detroit. What's the difference between destroying a city with bombs or with an economic catastrophe?

GE
New Zealand (Aotearoa)
24/02/2009
Fiat money
And it's all just based on "play" money - paper - worth only what people trust it's worth. It is gold and silver which are real money...

Rev W
United States
24/02/2009
Excellent perspective on the economic collapse - added a number of bits to a situation we've been discussing since the early '80s. However, 'selfishness' might be a better descriptor than 'individualization'. Also, the clear participation of established religion in creating this socio-economic crisis suggests that responsibility for the abandonment of religious or ethical definitions of self worth should not be overlooked.

Mike
United States
24/02/2009
Obama fit to lead
I see that Horace from "Afghanistan" is one of those Rush Libaugh types that's hoping for Obama to fail. Like Limbaugh he cares little that when the President fails the nation fails. Neocons think of this as being a real American. In my view we've had enough of a failed presidency and it's in large part how we got to where we are. Oh, and I do agree that Americans are foolish and greedy and we'd better return to common sense and not run out and buy in order to save the nation.

Steven Schaaf
United States
24/02/2009
Economy
Thank you for your broad-ranging commentary, Mark. I have a slightly skewed perspective, as a native Californian I have nonetheless worked most of my career in direct competition with "illegal immigrant" (Mexicans in Californio? the horror!) laborers. One thing I had noticed was that my standard of living has steadily declined since 1979. These downturns usually seem to divert more assets upward than boom times, AFAIKT.

Robert
United States
24/02/2009
eh?
I haven't seen any impact on my standard of living at all, but I do hard physical labor for a living, something few want to do in the US now, and I've always saved more then I've owed, just like most Americans in the '40s and 50's, you know, the generation that made our nation wealthy and were self reliant, not the entitlement seeking cry babies that make up the nation now.

ajaz
India
27/02/2009
House of cards
well! History is replete with such cases. how many mighty empires are in the dustbin of history. The Greek emipre, the Roman empire, the Persian empire, the British empire and recently the USSR have seen the dusk of their glory. US has had its day and glory does not last forever except the glory of the Almighty God. So the people of US must get ready for a downfall and the pain that comes with it. US has only itself to blame for its ills.

robert1234
United States
27/02/2009
Economy
After years of being alone in claiming that low wages were the cause of America's decline and being called naive, it's reassuring to see that a top financial brain now agrees with me. I see Reagan as the great American destroyer of the middle class and my continued support of high wages and union jobs is now reinforced. God, it's nice to be finally told I'm right!

Warren
Canada
28/02/2009
A Financial House of Cards
This crisis has been created by a very bad combination of greed on one hand and faulty thinking that everyone in America should own their own home. This financial crisis is very similar to the situation of a low income family winning the lottery. With very little experience in conservative money management they spend all the money on a large home and expensive cars, only to find out shortly after that they can not afford the ongoing monthly expenses to maintain these assets.

Warren
Canada
28/02/2009
Financial House of Cards
Mark Levine mentions the "Protestant ethic" which has been more commonly known as the "Judeo-Christian Work Ethic". As the Western world falls away from obedience to the God of the Bible found in both the Old and New Testaments we find ourselves getting into moore problems. Let's get back to some individual accountability. Let's renew our faith in God, not government, not money, not large corporations, but simply God (Yahweh, Jesus).

Ben
United States
28/02/2009
Fiat monitary policy to blame
Far from being an issue of individualism it is the collectivist belief that government should control the purse strings that is to blame for this crisis. If the U.S. Government and its cronies in the private banks known collectively as The Federal Reserve had not been controlling the financial markets and holding the interest rates artificially low we would not be here today. What is needed is a commodity based currency that is controlled by the free market. END THE FED.

 
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