UPDATED ON:
Saturday, January 03, 2009
15:14 Mecca time, 12:14 GMT
FOCUS: WAR ON GAZA
'War amongst the people'

Israel's niche technology may be of little use in a ground offensive in Gaza [AFP]

Israel is a highly developed technological society. Its defence equipment industry supplies the major industrial and new industrial nations with niche technology that is second-to-none.

In the last 60 years, Israel has fought several full-scale industrial age wars against its neighbours and been involved in a number of counter-insurgency conflicts typical of the many fought by the Western powers during the 19th and 20th centuries. It has never lost a conflict. But this is the age of 'war amongst the people' and just now the jury is out.

Lebanon war

The changing mode of conflict in this sub-region became clear in August 2006.

Believing that the lessons which Nato learned during the Kosovo conflict were that air power alone could win a war without the use of ground troops - negating all the risks physical, political and economic attached to sending in the tanks - appealed to the Israeli army and its political masters.

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Israel did not fully appreciate the lessons and misread the situation in southern Lebanon, the capabilities of Hezbollah, including the amount of Iranian support, and the fact that the nature of conflict had changed. It nearly lost a conflict.

For example, precision weapons, world class though they may be, could not destroy the small, remotely-controlled rocket launchers before munitions had been launched - only after the damage had been done.

Certainly, the main heavy and medium rocket launchers were put out of action before Hezbollah could bring them into operation.

However, it was the small systems, often home-made, nestling on the balconies of apartment blocks, in orchards, partially protected by top cover and above all devoid of people who might show up on the infra-red scanning technology carried by Israeli drones - unmanned aerial vehicles like Heron and Skylite - that caused the greatest damage.

Hezbollah also dug in Vietcong-style with tunnels and underground facilities, developed over many years.

Damage to Israel's reputation in the eyes of the domestic audience and that of the media was unusually high. And because Hezbollah is so much better at using the media than Israel, many firmly believe Israel lost the conflict. It did not but facts rarely have a place in a 'war amongst the people'.

Changing balance

During the two years since the southern Lebanon conflict, which, from the Israeli point of view, ended in stalemate at best, there has been a ceasefire in Gaza.

Hamas has not been slow in building up its capability during this period. These preparations have included developing its military capability, probably with the support of Iran and Hezbollah, and careful preparation of the international media for information operations - a vital part of the 'war amongst the people'.

How much has Israel learnt from its war against Hezbollah in 2006? [GALLO/GETTY]
Hamas has also been working hard on deception operations in the classic 'camouflage' sense, taking leaves from the Hezbollah book and hiding its capability in domestic and public sector accommodation - homes, apartments, schools, refugee camps.

It has also become expert at masking its routine by screening out the sensors of Israeli drones, masking its radio communications and making use of non-combatants in the traditional sense. In a 'war amongst the people' the line between combatant and non-combatant is thin and changes by the hour, if not the minute.

So today in Gaza, the Israelis have found - just as the Americans found in Iraq and Afghanistan - that the balance is shifting away from industrial age conflict to something different.

The war in Gaza is not an industrial age conflict but a true 'war amongst the people', with non-state actors, albeit elected as a government, calling the shots on one side and a democratic cabinet in the Western model on the other.

The use of media footage, exaggerated claims, weapons like unguided rockets and now for first time, a global threat of attack on Israeli nuclear facilities has changed the balance and the room for manoeuvre.

Strategic, tactical, operational

Even a 'war amongst the people' can be divided into the three logical spheres of interest: strategic, tactical and operational.

The perception is that Israel has never cared about the first in terms of world opinion as it has been shielded by its close relationship with the US - and a strongly held belief that it is right.

There is little doubt, however, that the hiatus in Washington, with a lame-duck president and a president-elect who has yet to take the reins of power, is significant in terms of timing on a strategic level and has given Israel the edge.

It has been interesting to note how the tone of Israeli government spokesmen has been modified as circumstances change, creating the perception that Israel too is learning about 'Info Ops' and how these perceptions play in the Western media in particular.

Israel's reputation was damaged by what many saw as a loss in Lebanon [GALLO/GETTY]
On a tactical level, Israel is well equipped for both industrial and counter-insurgency conflicts - and there is now evidence that it is rapidly picking up the lessons of 'war amongst the people' at a tactical level. It can strike with precision by day or night.

Operationally, the critical matter for Israel is whether Hamas can get inside the 'decision cycle' of the commanders on the scene - the Israeli army rules of engagement are not made public but may include the need to revert to Tel Aviv on key engagements.

The rules have been influenced by public opinion and the media - but Hamas has none of these concerns and has seen how the Taliban has run rings around the Nato forces in Afghanistan, not to mention the Kabul administration, in recent months.

Gaza is critical. Whatever happens, there will be casualties on both sides, international repercussions across the globe and there is always the risk of intervention by Syria, Iran or another state.

'War amongst the people' will then develop into industrial age, state-on-state conflict and who knows where that might go.

'War amongst the people' might be a new paradigm but is not the only one.

Paul Beaver is an independent defence analyst, a former Editor of Jane's Defence Weekly, TV war reporter and media commentator. His views reflect 30 years of covering major and minor conflicts, including those in the Middle East.

The views expressed by the author are not necessarily those of Al Jazeera.

 Source: Al Jazeera
 
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Feedback Number of comments : 30
 
BlackPhi
United Kingdom
03/01/2009
War amongst the people
The thing about Israel's high-tech approach to warfare is that it is very dependent on oil - the strike aircraft and tanks need fuel to fight. Where exactly is all this oil coming from? Who is fuelling the Israeli war machine?

Dan
United States
03/01/2009
Israel
Romario, what does it matter praying for the Israelis? You are Christian and should know that anyone who does not accept Christ is going to hell, in God's land or not. Did you forget? Besides, wouldn't it be better to pray for the Israelis in general? Israel is nothing more than a western strategic pawn put there by the Brisith, those people where put in the line of fire.

mac
Sweden
03/01/2009
People and resistance are the same
Israel and its elite should know that people and the resistance have become a united entity in the Middle East. It is the difference between now and the past.

Farida
United Kingdom
03/01/2009
response to Romario
Palestine is the country chosen by God but not chosen for the Jews. Indeed Allah is watching. We are now waiting for the coming of Jesus. I am really appalled to hear that a believer in God does not mind about what is right or wrong. You should pray for God to open your heart to His religion - your time will be better utilized.

Ashur
Australia
04/01/2009
I think that the Israel's are right in what they are doing because you cannot live along side a country which will fire rockets into your country anytime of the year or month this is unreasonable Israel should use all its power to put an end to all this I'm an Assyrian in the history no empire has harmed the jewish people like mine but now i believe that Israel's arn't in the wrong and should protect their people as all other countries do.

Abu Jadeela
United States
05/01/2009
war amongs the people
I think Mr Beaver is correct, just try to remember in the seventies what happened in Vietnam it was the same wars amongst the people, someone has a lot pf power but has no guts to fight, some people fight for what they believe in as national asperation drives them to do so and some their greeds drives them to go that way, I let this for you to decide who will win at the end. 60 years did not stop this movement with all kind of tecknologies and it is going, the right always stronger.

Jimmy
Japan
05/01/2009
To Dan
Hey Dan - the British didn't set up Isreal. They established a blockade to stop the exodus from Europe, they supported the local Arab leaders with arms and money, and they were totally against the creation of the Jewish state. It was France who pushed the vote in the UN to create a Jewish state.

carolijn
United States
05/01/2009
Gap in moral standard between the sides 2
The problem is that the Jihad fanatics will push the West to accept the jihad values against the Muslims (unfortunately, the West has shown that it can do the must horrible things). What if Israel bomb civilians just like the Hamas do? Every one that shouts 'itbach el yahud', think on what will happen to the Muslims if the west gets the same fanatic perspective.

WhereisWally
Belgium
05/01/2009
What the palestines want?
The Palestinians have been captured in their country for many years, without rights outside it, and controlled by Israel. The Palestinian people are ruined, and are slowly dying, killed by Israel. Israel is just a small piece of the 'west' in the middle east. The reason why there ain't no help from the 'West' is that Israel has good connections (economically) with the West, but it's a humanitary disaster right now!

Richard Wisecarver
United States
05/01/2009
Gaza War
The "war amongst people" is very well written. If Hamas is attempting to force Israeli opinion toward the right and support the view of Extreme Orthodox Jews, then they have succeeded. Very sad! The Israeli army learned many valuable lessons when fighting the Hisbollah in Lebanon and this will likely be demonstrated in Gaza. Poor governance, civil war, and foolish leadership have marked the history of the Hamas regime. The average Palestinian only wants to care for his family.

Philip Murphy
Belgium
05/01/2009
About the 2006 Lebanon war: I seem to remember the Israeli govt early on stating its war aims: to recover the missing soldiers to stop rocket fire into Israel and to push Hizbullah back beyond the Litani river. Since it failed in all three respects I think it is hard to argue that Israel did not lose the conflict. Whether Hizbullah won is quite another question. Perhaps both sides can lose a war.

Karni
Indonesia
05/01/2009
War amongst the people
I just can't undertand why hundreds of people died and thousands injured and not mentioned how much all material lost in front of our sight will not move our hand to stop. What if it happened to our family, our lovely children, our parents. What if some who stay in your home then through you away..and even kill you..

Yusuf
South Africa
05/01/2009
War amongst the people
It's not about Israel and Palestine, this problem is bigger...it's about control. Whoever has control, has power. Why query that Iran has 1 nuclear warhead...when America and Israel have 200+ Who decides who's allowed to have nuclear weapons of mass destruction and who isn't. From an Israeli perspective, arabs with warheads are a threat. From an arab's perspective, the west with nuclear warheads are a threat. Israel

Mrs.Josephine Hyde-Hartley
United Kingdom
04/01/2009
It may be true 'war amongst the people' can be divided into logical spheres of “strategic, tactical and operational." However, in my view as a UK citizen the idea of creating a new "paradigm" in order to legitimately frame 'war amongst the people' is bad. Questions about how the powerful can set one citizen (who may be employed by the militia) against another (who isn’t) seem all wrong. Why use "the military" first or primarily to protect citizens? Better to use operationally independent police.

Shuja Syed
Australia
04/01/2009
War amongst the people
Is there any reason why Saudi Arabia not stopping the flow of oil? Is there any reason why Egypt is not kicking out American and Israeli Ambassadors? Time is for instrospection.

chico
Japan
04/01/2009
world is watching
Fortunately media bias which only has supported Israel does not work any longer. From Far East where I live, this massacre can be examined using both Israeli and Parestanian side of stories. People who did not pay much attention to this issue have started to realize the truth.

Celzo
South Africa
04/01/2009
War among the people
What really makes me wonder is what all these Palestinians want Israel to do, especially now when Hezbollah has 40,000 missiles capable of reaching all Israel, and Iran is almost getting a nuke, and the Gazans make a living shooting missiles at Israel. Is there anything else to do? Why do we celebrate war? Be it Israel against Hamas, or the Taliban in Afghanistan? Could these anti-West sentiments be channeled in other directions?

Ismail
United States
05/01/2009
What choice does Israel have? If Hamas would be willing to agree that Israel has a right to exist, they would open the door for negotiation. By insisting that Israel has no right to exist, they have put themselves into an existential struggle from which only one side may emerge the victor. We have listened to demagogues for too long. Maybe the answer lies in trying to live side by side, rather than vowing the destruction of the other side.

Tom
United States
05/01/2009
War
This war is the only solution to deal with the Hamas - although they don't understand diplomacy, they understand power and destruction. Go Israel, clean this conteminated region so we can finally live in peace with people who recognize Israel. I prey for our Israeli soldiers, and hope that the war won't stop before the mission is completed.

zeenat
Canada
06/01/2009
War on gaza
In the end truth prevails. The illegal state of Israel cannot flourish forever. Anything that is acquired at the expense of injustice cannot remain. The people of Palestine have been treated unfairly. Their land was confiscated by unfair means. See video Occupation 101 on Al jazeera site. Any citizen of Israel should be ashamed, since they are living on a land that is not truly theirs. It was usurped by evicting a Palestian family. Who would want this on their conscience?

SRY
Malaysia
06/01/2009
stop blaming HAMAS
For all who supported Israel, stop blamming Hamas as they were the cause of this crisis. I admit that they have launched several rockets or some says up to thousand of them, but did you ever think why Hamas fire the shells in the first place. Let me tell you guys a logical answer: 1. Israel have blocked Gaza from receiving aid and other basic aminities. 2. Israel intend to provoke the Palestinian by arresting and torturing the innocent 3.Israel does not recognize the right of palestine people

Danny
Hong Kong
06/01/2009
WMD
george w. bush mentioned "Weapon of Mass Destruction" for years and used this as an excuse to invade and occupy Iraq. Ironically, the Israel is using it to slaughter the Palestinian, including children and civilian. Still Bush support the invasion and blocks the Gaza UN ceased-fire resolution, why......US is the manufacturer and supplier of these WMD. What a shame!

Avnera
United Kingdom
06/01/2009
The only way
The only way to stop the fighting right away is to convince Hamas (assuming they are human at all and ARE bothered about their own people) to stop launching rockets at Israel.

M Kamel
United Kingdom
06/01/2009
Remember how started !
moshe , you should remember that before the rockets israel subjected Gaza to a painful blockade & has been starving the people and children of Gaza so that it can provoke Hamas to ending the truce and give themselves an excuse for what they are doing now !

Warwick
Australia
06/01/2009
Pity - War amongst the people
Have pity for all involved. Pity especially the young. Pity the adults on both sides who with hatred in their bellies perpetuate the problems in this region. I pray that peace will come soon for all sides and especially the young ones whose lives have just begun. I hope they can have a future made for them that is about peace and tolerance in a world that is and should be diverse.

ghot
Canada
06/01/2009
War amongst the people
Good article but i want to go further, how about people's war against oppression, occupation, and imprisonment. How about people's struggle for the right to live like human beings devoid of having to worry about having food on their tables or whether their children are coming back from school in body bags or not. Lets give the Palastinians some human rights and hope for a bright future for themselves, their children and families. Only then they will lay down their arms.

Luqman
Singapore
06/01/2009
what are talking about tom?
is u got war with hamas go ahead... BUT israel is killing innocent people! Israel has the most advance technology, why cnt it pin-point the rockets? instead israel bombard schools, mosque, living families homes,shops., etc.. where innocents live... this war is just a reason for israel to expand their land.

Shimelis
Ethiopia
06/01/2009
Views on the war on Gaza
I am once again struck hard by the balatantly clear fact that this world is indeed a place for the unjust and the cruel. The barabric and inhumane act of Israel and the indifference of the major global actors makes the value of the so-called "International community" and its UN apparatus more redundant and irrelevant than ever before more hollow and stupid than ever before. I want to express my profound and heartfelt solidarity with the people of palestine. May God be with you!

Baron
Poland
06/01/2009
Hamas attacked Israel, so Israel has right to fight back. I agree. But this isn't fight against Hamas. This is the slaughter of hundreds of innocent civilians from the Gaza Strip. Where are these Hamas terrorists killed or catched in the effort of this "war"? What's the real nature of this "war" and against whom israeli troops really fight?

moshe
Israel
06/01/2009
the war
to all the responds - i want to ask you how would your country respond if another country was shuts rockets on you while the "hamas" people and their rockets are hiden among and under the civilians?

 
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