Welcome to our US Election Countdown Diary, Al Jazeera's daily analysis of what's happening in the run-up to the US presidential elections as voters prepare to elect their 44th president on November 4. With news, views and a healthy degree of scepticism, we'll be bringing you the latest on the elections from across the US and the world.

The New York Times takes a look at John McCain's latest strategy for winning the election. 

Top aide Steve Schmidt calls it a "narrow-victory scenario", winning by just a few electoral votes. 

McCain is playing defense, having to campaign in historic Republican strongholds, like North Carolina and Virginia to try to prevent those states from turning blue. 

He wants to win the traditionally red states where Obama is currently up in the polls. 

Karl Rove, former Republican party strategist, writes about just how narrow a victory it could be in his Wall Street Journal op-ed: "It's threading the needle, but it's come to that."

McCain will be campaigning in those states (as well as battlegrounds Ohio and Florida) and using mailings, phone calls, ads, and volunteer efforts to sway the undecideds. 

But Schmidt sounded fatalistic talking to the Times.

"The fact that we're in the race at all - within striking distance with a five per cent right track - is a miracle. Because the environment is so bad and the head wind is so strong," he writes.

Winning key states

Meanwhile the Los Angeles Times takes a look at Barack Obama's strategy for winning Florida - his campaign is planning to spend $39 million to do it. 

The Times says Obama has nearly 400 paid staff there, including five top aides. 

But McCain remains popular with Cuban-Americans, veterans, and "high-profile supporters such as Joe Lieberman might help boost support among Jews".

The state Republican party chair said his party is already giving up on a key area around Miami: "The question is whether we lose it by 25,000 or 75,000. That's the key to winning the state."

Politico examines Obama's poll numbers in four important swing counties across the country where the election may very well be decided. 

Obama leads in all four: the area surrounding Philadelphia, St Louis, Washington DC's Virginia suburbs, and Columbus, Ohio. 

A pollster explains to Politico: "Obama's success in these areas as a result of his strength among independents and voters between the ages of 30-to-44."

Polling problems

Obama wins by a landslide ... if the world  could vote [Reuters]

Different polls give Obama a different margin of lead – an LAT poll gives Obama a nine-point lead, Pew Research a seven-point lead, Rasmussen a four-point lead.

The Journal says: "The polls owe their wide variations, in part, to differences in how they determine likely voters."

Another reason is that pollsters have different formulas for determining what percentage of Democrats and Republicans they survey. 

And of course there is the fact that pollsters call people on landline phones. Many Americans, especially younger voters, may only have a cellphone.

The Washington Times reports that no outside political group has taken the lead in spreading a negative message about one candidate or the other, as the Swiftboat Veterans for Truth did to John Kerry, the former Democratic presidential candidate, four years ago. 

One Republican strategist blamed it on the sour economy. Brad Blakeman told the Times: "When you have investors investing back in their companies, they don't have the disposable dollars they had in the last cycle, so it's prioritised their giving." 

But that doesn't jive with Obama's massive fundraising ... maybe independent groups don't think McCain can win ...

Funfact: Eight leading newspapers around the world conducted polls on who their citizens want to be the next US president ... and Obama wins by a landslide. 

In Belgium, Switzerland, and France, McCain only gets single digit support. But none of these people get to vote, and Americans typically don't like to be told what to do, especially by the French.  

It was John McCain's best debate so far. He largely led the discussion with Barack Obama having to react. But Obama was unflappable: calm, challenging, and well spoken. 

The Washington Post says it was the "most intense confrontation of the campaign".

As for who won ... as with past debates, Obama fans thought he won, McCain fans thought their man won. Different polls show different outcomes among the undecideds.

The consensus from the punditry is that McCain did well, but not well enough. 

Cathleen Decker of the Los Angeles Times writes: "There was no single moment that was likely to reverberate in the minds of American voters and change the course of an election that has moved dramatically toward Obama in the last several weeks.

"But the 90-minute debate was a perfect distillation of McCain's general election campaign, with all of its inconsistent messages."

John Dickerson of Slate writes that "McCain's biggest flaw may have been that he did nothing to link to the message of his new stump speech: That he would be a fighter in Washington for regular people."

Todd Domke, a Republican strategist, writes in the Boston Globe that the good performance was not enough: "McCain had some good soundbites, but what he really needed was a sound strategy - several months ago."

"Joe-mentum"

McCain distanced himself from Bush in Wednesday's debate [AFP]

The Boston Globe writes: "The exchange over Joe did more than put a human focus on McCain's criticisms - it allowed McCain to take the offensive on the tax issue."

Joe became an insta-celebrity on American television. We'll see how much "Joe-mentum" McCain gets out of Joe. 

McCain finally fought the Bush association on Wednesday night, saying "Senator Obama, I am not President Bush. If you wanted to run against President Bush, you should have run four years ago."

Undecided voters still out there are angry with the current administration and want something different. 

McCain spoke directly to them when he said that, not Barack Obama. It was his best moment of the night. McCain has got a new ad out basically saying the same thing, that "the last 8 years haven't worked very well, have they?"

Obama has a new ad out too. It's another one tying McCain to Bush. 

Issue omissions

What they didn't discuss was immigration. A couple of years ago it seemed like it would be a pivotal issue (before the economy went sour). 

Thousands demonstrated for immigrant rights, there was talk of fences and work permits ... but no mention in this debate.

So now we really are in the home stretch ... 19 days and counting. All that is left is more crisscrossing the battlegrounds on the stump, more polling, more ads, more phone calls from campaign volunteers, more fliers, and finally the vote. 

Meanwhile the Republican National Committee has pulled its TV ads for McCain off the air in Wisconsin.  The state is heavily leaning Democratic. 

AP reports that the RNC will spend its $10 million ad budget in battlegrounds such as Colorado, Indiana, Virginia, and Missouri.  McCain may still run his own ads in Wisconsin, but it is a bad sign.

Obama is launching TV ads in West Virginia, which polls show has just recently become competitive. Virginia has 500,000 newly registered voters. 

They are not registered by party, so we don't know how many of them are Democrats, but they're concentrated in the northern part of the state. Northern Virginia is largely a democratically area.

And finally the Riz Khan show is looking for registered voters to discuss the presidential election live with Riz on October 24.

If you're between the ages of 18 and 25 and want to debate the issues, fill out the application on our website by using the button above.

Once again, the armies of the McCain and Obama campaign advisors and supporters descended on the 'spin room', where hundreds of journalists covering the event are stationed, to put their side of what was and wasn't said during the 90-minute showdown.

Ahead of the debate the pressure had been on John McCain to produce a definitive moment, a 'game-changer' that could put Obama on the defensive and narrow the widening gap the Illinois senator has achieved in the polls.

But after the debate, even his staunchest supporters failed to 'spin' the event as a victory for their candidate.

The final spin

"You can't look at the debate in isolation, you have put in the context of the campaign," Frank Donatelli, a senior official from the McCain campaign, told Al Jazeera.

The 'spin room' allowed campaign advisors to promote their party line

The Obama camp were keen to play down expectations that another solid, if not outstanding display, would now be enough to win the White House.

Martin O'Malley, the governor of the US state of Maryland, told Al Jazeera that the Obama camp did not believe they had yet done enough to win the White House.

"With each passing debate, people have become more comfortable with Barack Obama becoming president of the United States," he said.

But this debate will be remembered for one figure - that of 'Joe the plumber', an Ohio man who confronted Obama over his tax policies during a rally earlier this week.

McCain repeatedly used 'Joe' during the debate, to the extent that groans were heard in the 'spin room' every time his name was mentioned.

However, the two candidates ranged over a number of issues in the first debate that was not totally dominated by the economy and foreign policy.

Obama and McCain clashed on abortion, education and there were some testy exchanges over negative elements to their campaigns.

However, the obvious personal animosity between them failed to erupt into anything more enlightening than sharp exchanges and US voters may be wondering how much they have learnt during four and a half hours of televised debate.

The Washington Post notes on Wednesday: "Both presidential candidates will head into their final debate Wednesday night armed with fresh plans to ease middle-class burdens."

They both offer new aid to senior citizens (who are a big and active voting bloc), put money into people’s pockets, and stimulate jobs. 

The Boston Globe characterises both plans as "designed to appeal to each of their base constituencies and reflect the philosophies of their political parties".

McCain told a radio station on Tuesday that Bill Ayers will come up during the final debate. 

Ayers is the founder of the Weather Underground, a 1960s group that committed acts of violence to protest the Vietnam war. McCain has attacked Obama for his association with Ayers as an example of the Democrat's untrustworthiness. 

Obama challenged him last week to basically "say it to my face". And it sounds like he will ...

McCain's 'last chance'?

McCain, analysts say, must win this debate to reverse his losses [Reuters]

Adam Nagourney in the NYT writes: "McCain is highly unlikely to let this third and final debate - the last time in the campaign that he will command an audience anywhere near this size - pass without a fight."  

Time's Mark Halperin says what McCain needs to have happen is he "will have to produce a major memorable moment at the expense of his rival - by forcing an error, exposing a flaw or unattractive trait, or revealing an inconsistency or weakness - which would then be replayed incessantly on the airwaves, rapaciously dissected by the media, and seized upon by the public."

It is a last stand, and McCain has to win this debate. Analysts are now giving McCain the benefit of the doubt, always saying what he can do to still win it. 

But if he does not hit a home run, they'll stop saying how he can win and instead say how he can win some states gracefully.

This debate is supposed to be about the economy and domestic policy. 

Both candidates will sit at a table facing each other with moderator Bob Schieffer of CBS News.  After each question, there will be a two minute answer period for each candidate and five minutes to discuss (ie argue). 

The independent vote

As previously reported, the base of each party is sticking with their man, but the independents are the key to this election and a new Los Angeles Times poll shows Obama up none points overall and up five points with independents. 

McCain carried them by 15 points last month.

"The movement of independents from McCain to Obama over the last month was responsible for much of the Democrat's increased lead. They are also largely responsible for Palin's faltering fortunes," the paper notes.

Nobody is putting any nails in McCain's electoral coffin, but the math is becoming harder and harder to make work. 

Obama's vast numbers of volunteers and huge pot of cash are a juggernaut that McCain cannot compete with. 

The New York Times has a couple of pieces examining some voters' prejudices against Obama and how that might play out on November 4. 

After a few choice quotes from a few Virginians, the Times finds that Obama's biracial background is why some southerners remain "deeply uneasy" with him. 

"While many voters said that made them uncomfortable, others said they were pleased by Mr. Obama’s lack of connection to African-American politics," the paper said. 

At least these people were honest, and some are even trying to get past old prejudices.

On Monday Obama came out with some new economic proposals, and on Tuesday it is McCain's turn (unlike Monday's message where he claimed to be the underdog). 

Many of McCain's new economic proposals are designed to help older Americans. 

And he would cut the capital gains tax on stock profits (for anybody who actually makes a profit in the stock market this year) and stop taxing unemployment benefits. 

However the Los Angeles Times says that "the talk of change and promise of a fist-shaking fight to November failed to allay Republican concerns that the presidential race may be slipping beyond his grasp."

McCain's lack of consistency and disagreement among top Republicans shows vivid disarray within the party. And they're not hiding it from voters too well. 

Eugene Robinson writes an op-ed in the Washington Post saying: "I defy anyone to give a coherent explanation of what today's Republican Party, under George Bush and now John McCain, wants to do except perpetuate itself in power."

Republican discontent

Party loyalists are still behind him, but those independents who he was counting on are not solidifying for him. 

One group not falling into line, suburban white women, a group McCain was counting on. 

The economic crisis is favouring the Democrats politically [GALLO/GETTY]

"With the economy in freefall, abortion opponents afraid even to peek at their third-quarter 401(k) statements suddenly see their way around this obstacle on their road home to the Democrats," she writes.

Dan Balz in the Washington Post points out that the focus in the media recently has been on McCain because of his lurching inconsistencies, but maybe it should be on Obama, since he is on a trajectory to win. 

"Changing circumstances have not changed his view of what can or should be done if he becomes president," he writes.

"It would be helpful to voters to know now, rather than after the election, whether he will take a zero-based look at everything and rearrange priorities."

David Saltonstall in the NY Daily News has the best analysis of what has happened this week on the campaign trail, specifically in ultra-battleground Ohio.

"Suddenly, the presidential contest here is less about black and white and more about green, as in the frightening evaporation of trillions of Americans' dollars."

Fundraising troubles

Johnston, left, admitted he hadn't registered in time to vote [GALLO/GETTY]

But the Wall Street Journal reports that he may have trouble passing the hat.

"The senator's recent demonising of Wall Street made it tough to lure contributors, with Wall Street and corporate executives balancing their aggravation with the Republican presidential hopeful against their rising unease about his Democratic opponent," it writes.

McCain has called Wall Street executives corrupt and said their "unbridled greed" caused the crisis. But now he wants them to donate to his campaign. Did he cut off the nose to spite his face?

Nonetheless the NYT reports that the RNC has enough cash to run lots of new attack ads against Obama.

Sarcasm for the day: Levi Johnston, the fiance of Bristol Palin (daughter of Sarah Palin, McCain's vice-presidential running mate and governor of Alaska) did not register in time to be able to vote on November 4.

He admitted it to the AP news organisation. Great way to impress your future mother-in-law, dude. Really. 

Several new polls out on Monday show that Barack Obama, the Democratic presidential candidate is leading McCain, his Republican rival, in the polls – Newsweek has him up by 11 points, the Washington Post/ABC News have him up by 10, and Gallup up by seven. 

The New York Times has analysed how hard it will be for McCain to make up this ground with only three weeks until election day.

"The magnitude of McCain's task may leave him depending on a misstep by Obama or a national security crisis rather than on what he can achieve through speeches, advertising or a winning performance in the final debate".

The Times goes on to say that Obama just needs to hold onto the voters polls show he has already got, while McCain would need to get most of them back.

Comeback kid?

Obama is set to unveil new economic policies but is there anything new? [Reuters]

"He portrays himself as a scrappy fighter on the comeback trail against an opponent who's already 'measuring the drapes' in the Oval Office."

Excerpts "suggest that the senator plans to fight without personally going viciously negative in the final days. He can leave that to the television advertisements," it says.

But there will not be any new economic proposal, despite pressure from his advisers, as Politico reports.

"Presented with 30 options for new economic measures, John McCain has - at least for now - chosen none of them."

And Obama is going to unveil more new economic policies on Monday, based on an op-ed he wrote in the NY Daily News on Sunday.

It is supposed to be an economic stimulus plan for the middle class. 

In the Daily News, Obama wrote it's "a shot in the arm that would provide every family immediate relief to cope with rising food and gas prices, help state and local governments maintain essential services” and save jobs. "

But, as usual, does not really say how he would pay for it or talk about belt-tightening.

Republican concerns

Meanwhile Republicans are increasingly worried about McCain's prospects. 

Even the conservative Weekly Standard writes that McCain's campaign is "heavy on tactics and light on strategy".

Stephen Hayes goes on to say: "Such contradictions have become a defining characteristic of the McCain campaign over the last month as his strategists try to find something - anything - that will stop his slide in the polls."

The Los Angeles Times reports that many of the Pentagon's top brass may be wary of a McCain presidency because of his experience in the navy. 

"He is more feared in the Pentagon because he is impervious to the usual methods the military uses to roll the civilian leadership," a senior defence official said."

I guess "civvies" or civilians are more malleable.

An ugly side

Some scenes at McCain's campaign speeches have turned ugly [AFP]

He has tried to make this campaign about character recently, but has really opened up a hornet's nest.

Time's Michael Scherer says: "McCain's campaign message now systematically encourages voters to believe that Obama is secretly something awful."

McCain's crowds have displayed an ugly side of the American electorate – a group who are afraid of people who are different. Maybe it is entrenched racism mixed with fear-mongering and a couple of decades worth of Arab-bashing. 

At a rally in Minnesota on Friday, a woman said she is afraid of Obama because he is an "Arab" (ie terrorist). 

McCain, to his credit, stepped in and said Obama is not a terrorist or a bad person.

While the American media has reported on the xenophobic comments of some of McCain's supporters, neither the media nor either candidate has tried to combat the notion that equating Arab with terrorist is hate speak.

So as ABC put it, does McCain want to run against Barack Obama or Barack Hussein Obama?

Fidel Castro, the former Cuban leader, has weighed in on the US presidential election. 

In an op-ed published over the weekend in Cuban state media, Castro said "profound racism" will prevent Americans from electing Obama. He also called McCain "bellicose".

And finally, while Obama is up in the Virginia polls, he still garners strong support in the conservative, rural, western part of the state. 

A man wearing a McCain-Palin T-shirt and cowboy hat and carrying a US flag was seen riding his horse down a highway median in Rappahannock County last week.