Welcome to our US Election Countdown Diary, Al Jazeera's daily analysis of what's happening in the run-up to the US presidential elections as voters prepare to elect their 44th president on November 4. With news, views and a healthy degree of scepticism, we'll be bringing you the latest on the elections from across the US and the world.

As John McCain's window to turn around the election closes, the New York Times and Washington Post report on his campaign's strategy to win.

They say he must keep stumping in the battleground states (newspapers have to dedicate column inches to the obvious?), keep talking about how McCain is better on the economy and national security (again, an obvious strategy!), and that the polling is inconsistent.

Adam Nagourney writes in the NYT: "Pollsters say there has never been a year when polling has been so problematic, given the uncertainty of who is going to vote in what is shaping up as an electorate larger than ever."

Everyone trying to predict the outcome of the election, from campaign staff to the media to Joe the Plumber, feels uncomfortable with the discrepancies in the polls.

The Los Angeles Times and Washington Post report that McCain will spend the next 11 days talking about Obama's "spread the wealth" tax policies. The LA Times writes that "the renewed effort to depict Obama as a liberal ... draws on a familiar Republican tradition of describing opponents as outside the mainstream."

Spreading the wealth is considered evil socialism by many Americans. McCain wants voters to remember Ronald Reagan - former Republican US president - and his fight against government imposition. 

But that is a 25-year-old argument, maybe times have changed.

Peggy Noonan, a former Reagan speechwriter, is one of the few who still has faith in McCain's ability to win despite the poll numbers. 

She writes in her Wall Street Journal op-ed: "No-one in politics has so repeatedly relished coming back from the dead."

Republican meltdown?

McCain is continuing to hammer Obama on tax issues [AFP]

Mark McKinnon, a former McCain aide, told Politico: "If you really want to see what 'going negative' is in politics, just watch the back-stabbing and blame game that we're starting to see."

As if that wasn't fatalistic enough, Politico also reports on an internal House Republican document which shows the party thinks it is going to get stomped in the congressional races, expecting to lose at least 11 seats, maybe as many as 34. 

At least the Republicans are preparing for what is likely to be a very bad hangover on November 5.

McCain will launch a new ad on Friday claiming Obama's tax plan would place a burden on families with special needs children (such as Sarah Palin, his vice-presidential running mate). 

The WSJ writes: "A top adviser to McCain said the attack was designed to show the 'bizarre, unintended consequences' likely to result from Obama's proposed tax increases."

McCain's top economic adviser says Obama's tax plan would "rob social security" which helps families with special needs children. This line of attack looks awfully desperate ...

Troopergate aftermath

According to the Los Angeles Times, William Bratton, Los Angeles police chief, who wrote a warning piece in the NY Daily News earlier this week about the possibility of a terrorist attack before election day, has taped a robo-call supporting Barack Obama.

The automated call is supposed to counter one made for McCain by Bratton arch enemy Rudy Giuliani. There is no indication who will be getting the calls ...

Sarah Palin, governor of Alaska, meanwhile, is to give a deposition in the so-called "Troopergate" investigation. 

Yes, there's another one. The Alaska State Legislature found she violated state ethics rules a few weeks ago, this time it's the Alaska Personnel Board looking into the matter. 

This will be Palin's first deposition in the matter.

One new national poll suggests the race may be tightening - an AP/GfK poll puts the election in a statistical tie, with 44 per cent for Barack Obama, 43% for John McCain. 

The AP says McCain's numbers have climbed since his better than expected performance in the last debate (thanks, Joe the Plumber). 

Other polls put Obama ahead, but of course, national polls don't matter much - it's the swing states that decide the election. 

New swing state polls put Obama up in Ohio and Indiana and McCain doing better in Florida and Virginia. 

But still, all those states are too close to call. 

The New York Times takes a look at the candidates' foreign policy positions and "where judgment sometimes collides with political expediency.

The result has included contradictions that do not fit the neat hawk-and-dove images promoted by each campaign."

Remember Obama's pledge to bomb Pakistan if they don't do what he wants or McCain's "Bomb Iran" song?  The Times goes on to remind readers that "presidential campaigns are usually terrible predictors of presidential decision-making." Thank goodness.

Fearmongering?

Rove had some unsolicited advice for John McCain [AFP]

But Rove admits, even if McCain wins every hand for the next 12 days, it will tough. 

"McCain has only one hope: To drive home doubts about Obama based on his record, and share as much as he can about his own values and vision to reassure voters."

Rove alternately gives advice to the candidates and rebukes for their bad decisions.  But even Rove seems a bit fatalistic this year.

The Centre for Responsive Politics has a new study out which indicates the 2008 presidential campaign will likely cost more than $2 billion. 

That's the cost of everything involved in the campaign – ads, conventions, money raised and spent by the candidates, parties, and outside groups. The cost in 2004? Around $1.6 billion. 

Meanwhile William Bratton, the Los Angeles police chief has co-written an op-ed in the NY Daily News speculating of a possible terror attack on the US before election day. 

William Bratton is also sceptical about an Obama presidency, writing "Bin Laden probably realises it could become markedly more difficult to paint the United States as the 'Great Satan' with a new president who is admired internationally.

"The remaining 14 days before the elections should be seen as a time of high threat, and state and local police should be on high alert. With so much at stake in these elections, Bin Laden will probably attempt to make his opinion count."

The Los Angeles Times quotes the deputy police chief as saying his department's anti-terrorism bureau has been "gearing up for some time" for the election. How about a little fearmongering with your ballot?

Running mate crises

Both candidates have spent valuable media time defending their running mates – Obama because Joe Biden likes to predict crises and McCain because Sarah Palin has a fashionista's wardrobe. 

Every time Obama or McCain have to clean up a mess in their own house, they lose an opportunity to beat up on each other. 

Obama chalked Biden's most recent gaffe as "I think Joe sometimes engages in rhetorical flourishes."

And on the other side, the papers are full of criticism of Palin's $150,000 wardrobe with lots of great quips, for example Donna Brazile, the Democratic strategist, who said "she will soon become a symbol of 'all dressed up and nowhere to go'."

On the way to the high school football stadium in Green, Ohio, photographer Snorre Wik and I stopped at a very busy takeout restaurant for breakfast. 

An older man in front of me asked the cashier how business was. 

She shot him a look. "Hectic," she said. "McCain's speaking at the school this afternoon and it's been really busy."

The old man snorted. "Hmph, people shouldn't go to his event, then it wouldn't be so crazy."

He turns and looks at me. "I bet you're going to see McCain!"

I smiled and said: "Actually, yes, I am going to see McCain."

The old man didn't bat an eyelash. "I hope you're taking a gun!"

Too stunned to ask what he meant,  I said something about expecting it to be a nice day and that everything should be fine.

Is this the state of affairs in Ohio, just days before the presidential election? Growing partisan ferocity? Anti-media hatred? Racial tensions? Something else? I've been just a wee bit wary ever since.

Enthusiastic crowd

Buttons always prove a popular way of expressing support [GALLO/GETTY]

Only one man glared at us. Oh well. I didn't interview him.

The enthusiasm at the rally was akin to that of an American  football game – cheerleaders, marching bands, and crowds wearing their team colours – in this case, Republican Red.  

The mood was festive, and people ate hamburgers and pizza while waiting for the event to start. 

A fair number of teenagers wearing "Palin" buttons were among those waiting to get into the arena.

Something was missing though – the opposing team. Just one man wearing an Obama sandwich board stood outside the security checkpoint, hoping to change someone's mind. 

He didn't succeed. To their credit, the waiting spectators didn't shout him down or chase him off the property. 

A bit of civility this late in the campaign – I'll take it.

Political analysts are scratching their heads about why John McCain, the Republican presidential candidate, continues to campaign in Pennsylvania when the polls have shown for weeks that his Democratic rival, Barack Obama, is ahead. 

The Chicago Tribune writes: "The McCain campaign is betting that Obama's support may be soft, and that these are the kinds of voters McCain still has a chance of winning over."

Obama must believe that McCain is on to something, or he would not keep campaigning in Pennsylvania.

Peter Nicholas and Bob Drogin write in the Los Angeles Times: "Depriving Obama of a win here is essential for McCain. If Obama holds Pennsylvania, he can clinch the presidency by winning various combinations of states that voted Republican four years ago but are now tilting Democratic."

It looks like an act of desperation, a last stand in the Keystone state. And it reiterates the importance of three big states, a combination of any two can almost surely be the key to the White House – Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. 

Does McCain's Pennsylvania strategy mean he thinks he is going to lose either Ohio or Florida?

Meanwhile USA Today analyses early voting data and finds Democrats are voting in greater numbers than Republicans.  That's a change from previous years. 

It's evident in mostly battleground states – Ohio, North Carolina, Nevada, New Mexico and Iowa. 

That is not to say that all the registered Democrats voted for Obama. But Paul Gronke of the Early Voting Information Center tells the paper that "this cannot be good news for John McCain. It's the 100-yard dash, and Obama is already 20 yards ahead."

Money matters

Obama has received millions from wealthy donors [EPA]

The Post went through the mandatory financial disclosures and found "only a quarter of the $600 million he has raised has come from donors who made contributions of $200 or less". The Obama Victory Fund has been taking checks ranging from $5,000 to $66,900. 

Despite Obama's record $150 million fundraising haul last month, Democrats and Republicans are about even in total cash left. The Wall Street Journal reports the Republicans have $172 million while the Dems have $164 million. 

As if anymore proof was needed that the campaign finance system is utterly broken, Obama pays less to advertise than McCain. 

According to the Wall Street Journal, that's because "campaign finance law requires broadcasters to charge candidates the lowest rate that they charge any advertiser, but that benefit isn't offered to political parties, meaning the Republicans are paying at least a 25 per cent premium on television ads, according to a GOP [Republican] strategist familiar with the party's finances."

Obama's campaign buys the ads but McCain has to go in with the Republican Party because he accepted public financing.  Oh the irony ...

Obama has publically announced he and his supporters will gather at Chicago's Grant Park on election night. It's a beautiful downtown location overlooking Lake Michigan. 

Several news outlets are complaining at the cost of covering the event – the Obama campaign is charging $935 just to allowed into the filing centre. 

Lynn Sweet of the Chicago Sun Times calls it "pay to play". The Obama campaign says it's not making money off the media. 

'Shoe-wars'

Palin's outfits are coming under scrutiny [AFP]

Some pundits say donors would not give money if they knew it would go to a makeover, especially during these tough economic times. On the other side, there are pundits saying she has to look professional and all the male candidates spend lots of campaign cash on their clothes too. 

There are cries of sexism in all this. Women's clothing is more expensive than men's, and it would very easy for naysayers to call her "dowdy" or "homely" if she dressed poorly. 

Maybe donors should not be paying for her wardrobe (or any candidate's wardrobe), but I applaud her for dressing well. Coco Chanel once said: "Dress shabbily, they notice the dress.  Dress impeccably, they notice the woman."

The McCain campaign says her new wardrobe will eventually be donated to charity. I call the red Naughty Monkey pumps!

Still, Palin's having a tough time these days – her clothes, her family, and her popularity. The Wall Street Journal has a new poll out showing her popularity is down six points from two weeks ago. 

Funfact: Lynn Sweet reports that Obama is not going to use Oprah Winfrey's studio to tape his 30-minute informercial. He's bought 30 minutes of airtime on a couple of US networks next week.

Two weeks left, and what to expect? More of the same really ... more talk about jobs and the economy, more ads, more attack ads, more phone calls from automated services and human beings, more campaign stops in Ohio.

If there was an October surprise, it was the souring economy. 

John McCain's campaign sent a donation solicitation to the Russian mission at the United Nations. Foreign governments cannot donate to presidential campaigns and the embassy says it was a mistake. 

A spokesman for the campaign said it was a computer error: "It sounds like they might have been sent to the wrong place."

Not desperate for cash - Barack Obama. His campaign manager said on Monday that the average donation to his campaign is $86, but some people donate $86 and several zeroes.

The Los Angeles Times reports a joint Obama/DNC account raised $36 million last month - "close to half of it from wealthy California donors who gave up to $61,600 each".

Actors George Clooney and Harrison Ford both gave $30,000 to the Obama Victory Fund. 

These types of joint fundraising committees are not subject to the same campaign finance laws as direct donations to the candidates. The New York Times reports that large donations to joint fundraising committees also came from executives at securities and investment firms to both candidates.

The ones who, according to both candidates, ruined the economy? 

The Times reports McCain's committee has done quite well: "Donations to these joint fund-raising committees have surged this election cycle, taking in nearly $300 million this year through September - with McCain collecting slightly more than Obama."

McCain's new rhetoric

All smiles - but McCain has distanced himself from Bush [GALLO/GETTY]

His poll numbers are in no small part an indictment of Bush, rather than a reflection of how people feel about him. 

And so with a new ad, a quip in the last debate and now on the stump, McCain is reminding voters of who he isn't.

The Washington Post reports: "The new rhetoric has drawn roars of applause at some campaign stops and represents a tacit acknowledgment that McCain has not distanced himself sufficiently from the administration." Polls show it's working.

News organisations are now taking daily national polls, and the numbers look good for Obama. He is maintaining his lead and even pushing farther ahead. 

The Los Angeles Times takes a look at why McCain has not connected with swing voters. In one of their recent polls, the Times found: "demeanour emerged as a dominant theme in their explanations for why they trusted Obama more than McCain to guide the nation out of its financial crisis."

Some participants said they thought McCain had a bad temper, especially in the debates. 

Funfact: Both candidates have produced videos for Wal-Mart, the US's largest retailer. 

Wal-Mart gets 136 million shoppers each week, and they are largely working class. 

The New York Times says Obama and McCain have posted video messages on Wal-Mart’s website. The candidates are focusing their messages – Obama advertises in video games and now they are both advertising in shopping carts.

My colleagues, producer Kostas Oikonomou and  photographer Snorre Wik, and I are spending the week attending John McCain's rallies across the US. 

We want to get a sense of what the Republican presidential candidate's supporters are thinking and doing as the Big Day – Election Day – approaches. 

Monday's discovery: People are happy to talk to Al Jazeera. 

Now, this comes amidst the uproar over our colleague Casey Kauffman's piece on what some attendees at a McCain-Palin rally in Ohio said about Barack Obama. 

Some local Republican officials have called Casey's eye-opening story inaccurate or a distortion of the truth, and a prominent newspaper columnist has also questioned the story's fairness. (Ed's note: Tony Burman, Al Jazeera English's managing director, has penned a response to the newspaper columnist in question.)

The time we have to talk with people at a rally is short – maybe a few minutes before the rally, as they file in and maybe a few minutes as during the rally itself, to get their reactions in "real time". 

Then we have to get them extremely quickly as the rally ends and people  head for the exits and their cars and right into traffic jams. 

Happy to talk

McCain fans are keen to get their message across [AFP]

The last thing you want is have people turn you down for interviews. It's not a lot of time to ask for more so that you have enough to file your story!

But I digress. Even though we lost a few minutes due to some campaign confusion about whether we could even do interviews during the event itself, I found people were happy to talk to me about why they support McCain and what more they could do to help get him elected, beyond voting for him themselves.   

Every person wanted to know where I worked, and when the story would air, and they all reacted the same way when I said "Al Jazeera".

"Ah – well, just be fair, okay?" They would say, and they would proceed with their comments. 

One woman (who objected to the campaign's efforts to stop our interview because it was happening  "during the programme") said she had a constitutional right to talk and was "impressed" that the campaign let Al Jazeera attend the rally. 

My answer: "It's called freedom of the press." She beamed. She turned out to be a great interview.

And that turned out to the case with all the people we met today in the battleground state of Missouri.

Barack Obama, the US Democratic presidential candidate, raised more money in September than any political candidate ever, doubling his own fundraising record from the month before. 

He collected $150 million last month, that us five million dollars a day. His total since last year - $605 million, mostly in small donations. 

Some things $605 million buys -  one million dollars a week on advertising in West Virginia, home to 1.2 million registered voters, 39 campaign offices in Indiana compared to zero for John McCain, his Republican rival, and more than 1,000 commercials in Miami during the first week of October compared to zero run by McCain ... 

Based on Obama's massive fundraising, McCain predicted the end of the campaign finance system (but really it was dead long ago). 

So, will Congress rewrite campaign finance laws? Dan Morain writes in the Los Angeles Times that "Republicans and many Democrats are sceptical of public funding schemes."

Just in case you think maybe the Obama campaign could slow down its fundraising, because there are only two weeks left, think again. Obama's campaign manager sent out a video to supporters yesterday asking them to "dig as deep as [they] can".

Early voting begins in seven states on Monday, including Florida, and the Miami Herald reports there were two dozen people in line in Miami just after the polls opened at 7:30 am local time. 

The Herald reports: "Democrats have typically taken advantage of early voting at slightly higher rates than Republicans in Florida. Absentee voting, meanwhile, is where Republicans have long held a decisive advantage."

People who vote early or by absentee tend to be more educated and more partisan.  Around 30 per cent of ballots are expected to be cast early or by absentee. 

Obama is in Florida on Monday encouraging his supporters to take advantage of early voting.   

Powell power?

Will Powell's endorsement give Obama further momentum? [GALLO/GETTY]

Citing McCain's judgment, the former secretary of state endorsed Barack Obama yesterday (a surprise to many of us). 

Does it negate the Republicans' argument that Obama is not experienced enough or that his foreign policy is unschooled? It's now a much harder argument to make ...

Does it mean that more people will vote for him? Endorsements do not usually sway voters, but polls will tell us in the coming days if Powell's is the exception. 

Time's Mark Halperin writes: "Powell is a brand unto himself in American politics, and clearly transcends the media's tendency to hype endorsements more than their actual importance to voters."

What we can expect is, if Obama wins, Powell will help heal wounds across the aisle. 

Last year Powell donated the maximum amount to John McCain’s presidential campaign, and now Obama says he is looking forward to "taking advantage of his advice in the next two weeks and hopefully over the next four years".

Marc Ambinder of the Atlantic says the endorsement "deprives McCain of a day to win the news cycle".

With only 15 days left, he cannot afford to be the second story. Jonathan Weisman and Amy Chozick write in the Wall Street Journal: "Republican former secretary of state Colin Powell's endorsement of Barack Obama is the latest sign that the Republican Party's coalition is fracturing amid the stresses of the campaign." 

They go on to say that the coalition has shown signs of strain for weeks, fiscal conservatives do not like McCain’s support of the bailout and social conservatives never liked him (despite the Palin pick). After the election, the Republicans may be trying to reinvent the house that Reagan built.

Defending Muslim-Americans

The New York Times takes a cynical view on why Powell did it, that it was "an effort to reshape a legacy that he himself considers tainted by his service under President Bush".

Powell sold the Iraq war to the international community with the famous "yellow cake" argument at the United Nations, a claim that turned out to be completely false.

The Times goes on to say that the endorsement reflects more about Powell than about either presidential candidate. He is trying to rebrand himself. 

However Powell has made the first defense of Muslim-Americans that I can remember from a senior member of either political party in this election cycle. 

While discussing his endorsement of Obama on Sunday, Powell countered the notion that Obama is a Muslim and that that is inherently bad. 

Powell asked: "Is there something wrong with being a Muslim in this country? The answer's no, that's not America.

"Is there something wrong with some seven-year-old Muslim-American kid believing that he or she could be president? Yet, I have heard senior members of my own party drop the suggestion - 'he's a Muslim and he might be associated terrorists.' This is not the way we should be doing it in America."

Amen.