Azerbaijan's oil resources will soon make it extremely wealthy [GALLO/GETTY]

Sitting in the coffee shops of downtown Baku, it feels a long way from the US presidential election.

Here, there is a strange blend of Russian and Persian culture which makes sense, given that Azerbaijan is geographically sandwiched in between Iran and Russia.

Its larger neighbours have considerable influence on this country of about 8.5 million people, but the relationship that really matters to the leadership of Azerbaijan right now is with the United States.

This country is about to become very, very rich.

The Azeri government boasts that between now and 2013, when its Absheron peninsula reaches its peak oil production period, it will earn an estimated $100bn, based on conservative estimates.

And it is for this reason that Azerbaijan has become a close friend of the West.

Balancing act

The US feels Aliyev has provided stability to Azerbaijan [Reuters]

Aliyev has so far provided a reliable supply of oil through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline to the West, and at the same time, balanced the interests of both Russia and Iran in the resource-rich Caspian Sea region.

For Azerbaijan, these relationships could be difficult to juggle, but the situation places the country in a potentially powerful position.

Stanley Escudero, the former US ambassador to Azerbaijan, describes it as a quadrilateral balancing act.

"Think of Azerbaijan as a point within a square defined at its four corners by Russia, Iran, Turkey and the West [the US and Europe].

"The Azeri point can never move too close, nor too far away, from any of the four corners but must periodically adjust its position within the square in response to developments at the four corners.

"Easy to describe, but very hard to do," he says.

Energy issues

Energy, Iran and Russia are three key issues which either John McCain or Barack Obama will be forced to deal with – and it is unlikely that any of them can be dealt with independently.

Any decision the US takes in relation to Iran or Russia will have serious implications for international energy security.

And it would be foolish to believe that Washington would take action in relation to Russia without considering Moscow's vital role in keeping the communication channels open with Tehran.

It was only a few months ago that Russia and Georgia were at war, drawing Tbilisi's Western allies - including the US - into a dangerous diplomatic confrontation with Moscow.

The instant cry was that this was the start of a "new Cold War".

In truth, it was probably not quite that sinister.

But certainly the brief conflict reminded many of how important the Caucasus and Caspian region is to the West - and how forthright a resurgent Russia might soon become.

Uncertain shifts

It is also important to note that during the Russia-Georgia war, when the BTC pipeline was out of operation, Azerbaijan diverted some of its oil supplies to Russia and Iran – perhaps a subtle shift in that "quadrilateral balance" described by Escudero.

Less subtle is the fact that since the end of the conflict and the resumption of supply through the BTC pipeline, Baku has actually continued to supply oil south to Iran and north to Russia.

Some have interpreted as meaning Baku is shifting closer to Moscow and Tehran.

In all likelihood, it is too early to tell.

Here in Baku, Azeris are watching events in the US closely.

This is a crucial period for Azerbaijan, and the eventual occupant of the White House will play an important role in determining the country's economic, political and strategic future.